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Stacey Abrams has conceded to Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia. When reported data comes in that is not what we expected, our model will update and incorporate this new data. Maggie Astor I think its still immature. Odds displayed in the graphics may not match numeric odds due to rounding. Georgias Senate race might culminate in a runoff election on Dec. 6 if no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote. Christine Zhang Eight counties that voted Yes on the proposal also voted for the Republican candidate for governor, Tudor Dixon. , Abigail Spanberger, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Virginias Seventh Congressional District. * Candidates need more than 50% of the total vote to win outright, which is reflected in the win probabilities. Jennifer Rubin: Tammy Baldwin has picked the lock on split-ticket voters. Prediction: Fetterman wins by 1-2%, 50-49 Democrats WISCONSIN: Mandela Barnes vs. Ron Johnson For several years, Johnson indicated he would not seek re-election in 2022, but here I am writing about him. Even though Democratic presidential candidates won the national popular vote in all 3 presidential elections between 2012 and 2020, Republican presidential candidates carried 93 of the 174 states with Senate contests during these years a success rate of just over 53%. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. Four of the 6 contests that are expected to be very competitive are currently held by Democrats (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire) while the other 2 (North Carolina and Pennsylvania) are currently held by Republicans. Soon, 14 Revolutionary War soldiers will finally rest in peace, Floridas book-ban frenzy targets Nora Roberts, and shes not happy, How Trump made it cool for Republicans to hate their own party, Regulators seize ailing First Republic Bank, sell remains to JPMorgan. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. , Don Bacon, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Nebraskas Second Congressional District. Lazaro Gamio Nov. 8, 2022, These charts show how the reported vote margin (the dashed line) compares with our estimated final margin (the solid line, surrounded by bands of uncertainty) over time. These differences in results reflected differences in the partisan makeup of the 3 classes of Senate seats as well as differences in the national political environment at the time of each election. In Indiana, a House race in the 1st district leans Democratic, but, if the seat were to flip, it could be an early sign of a red wave. Here are my predictions how the races will pan out and some points of caution Democrats should note to secure the Senate in 2022. As of now, its considered a toss The first polls are closing in Indiana and Kentucky. The Needle: Senate and House Forecast - New York Times Senate Election Forecast 2022: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races Advertisement The Senate Remains a Toss-Up Last updated Nov. 6, 2022, 9:19 p.m. Nov. 8, 2022, Senator Raphael Warnock is out with an early lead in Georgia, but it could all be just a mirage. Tonight, our election forecast will show live estimates for which party is favored to win control in the Senate and House. Table 4 presents data on the 16 Senate contests in which the model predicted the wrong winner. Republicans have won in four of five New York tossup seats, and the Republican candidate is ahead in the fifth. Second, he has to bring the Republican coalition together, which would require political skill that I dont know that he possesses. GOP Rep. David Rouzer is coasting to reelection. All rights reserved. Late victories in Nevada and Arizona deal another blow to the Republicans, and to Donald Trump, On top of his other flaws, the former president is a serial vote loser, Several sorts of extremism may have prevented the party from securing a more convincing victory, In a reverse of recent trends, they may have slightly underestimated Democrats, Published since September 1843 to take part in a severe contest between intelligence, which presses forward, and an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing our progress.. NYT Graphics Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has opened a lead over Republican Blake Masters. Our election forecast is based on estimates for the outcomes of all Senate and House races. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. Visit. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket makes the math slightly easier for a Republican upset. However, this has become increasingly difficult, as partisan polarization has deepened. The outcomes of the 6-8 contests that will most likely determine control of the U.S. Senate in the next Congress will depend to a large extent on the individual candidates and their campaigns. Centrist anti-fascist and anti-communist. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. First, as one would expect, the larger the predicted margin of victory, the likelier the prediction is to be correct. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their states presidential leanings. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. Dont punish people for it. It seems as if Democrats arent really confident that Bidens economic agenda is really a selling point going into 2024. Read more Wiley Nickel, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent North Carolinas 13th Congressional District. Polls just closed in 19 states and Washington, D.C. All rights reserved. . Box 400806 Charlottesville, VA 22904. This work really does have to be done, right? Ohio. Nov. 10, 2022, As of noon Eastern time, Democrats have won 190 House seats, Republicans have won 208, and 37 are still undecided. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took Lazaro Gamio That could all change Tuesday. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. Updated daily, Ron Johnson Re-Election Polling and Predictions, Mark Kelly Re-Election Polling and Predictions, 2024 PollsPresidential ElectionSenateGOP PrimaryDem PrimaryBiden Approval Rating Tracker. 2020 comparison maps exclude places where third-party candidates won more than 5 percent of the vote. Ron DeSantis, a hard-right conservative, is facing Representative Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor who switched parties. While the 2 parties split these contests almost evenly, with Democratic candidates winning 89 contests and Republican candidates winning 85, there was considerable variation from year to year. , Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire was re-elected, holding on to one of Democrats most vulnerable seats in a tight contest for Senate control. You deserve to hear our thinking. To read recent stories on the race for the Senate, click here. Heres what the vote count could look like this year. Louisiana the reason I will not put Louisiana in sure-shot Republican is Louisiana does have a record of voting Democrat in gubernatorial elections. This legislative session has cemented him as an extremist. Our newest ratings and updates, Note: Based on 170 contested races. An edited and condensed version of our conversation follows. One big obstacle to that coalition growth project is that Florida Gov. Is the challenger struggling to raise money? 2022 Senate Elections Model - Decision Desk HQ 2022 Click here. Everyone covered the Democratic Party being in a defensive crouch last year. While it is not enough to prevent filibustering, the 4 rational Republicans (Collins, Murkowski, Romney and Sasse) shall helped by preventing unwanted filibuster abuse. The red wave did not materialize, and election night ended with many close races that will be decided by mail-in ballots. In two states, shifts in state power could lead to new restrictions. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. Nov. 9, 2022, With more counties nearly finished counting, things keep looking better for Lt. Gov. Based on the results of my analysis of Senate contests between 2012 and 2020 in Table 2, I calculated the models expected results of all 35 Senate contests taking place this year. Current Senate We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. RacetotheWH has in-depth predictions for every Governor, Senate and House Race, polling for the 2024 primaries, and a Bidens approval rating tracker. Republicans would need just two tossup seats beyond what they are favored to win. Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, and Joe Lombardo, the Las Vegas-area sheriff who was endorsed by Donald Trump. Your guide to the midterm results, from Times reporters, Democrats held onto or gained trifectas in a number of states and fended off Republican supermajorities in others. Meanwhile, Republicans are in the hunt in Colorado and Washington State though both are rated Lean Democratic. It would take a larger GOP wave than is currently apparent for Democratic Sens. Well also be watching competitive House races in N.C.-13 and Ohio-9. Our House forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. Democrats extremely narrow majorities in Congress are highly vulnerable, and the traditional midterm penalty suffered by the party in power has Republicans likely to gain upward of 15 House seats, and they have a good shot of taking full control of Congress. Ipredictelections.. Vance, the author and venture capitalist who is endorsed by Donald Trump, is competing with Representative Tim Ryan, a Democrat. Tony Evers is seeking a second term in one of the country's most-closely divided states. , Angie Craig, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Minnesotas Second Congressional District. State presidential partisanship was also a powerful predictor of Senate election results during these years, reflecting the increasing nationalization of these contests. Along with explaining 84% of the variance in Senate election margins, the 3 variable model correctly predicted the winner of 154 of 170 contested races between 2012 and 2020. Despite endless hopeful invocations of but polls show that people like our positions, the truth is that the Democratic Party has been pulled far enough left that even lots of non-crazy people find us just plain scary something that Fox News takes vigorous advantage of. Web1 Predictions. In all likelihood that will be the case again in 2022 a handful of close contests will decide which party controls the upper chamber. The consent submitted will only be used for data processing originating from this website.