Many countries are also now developing measures to build a more resilient tourism economy post COVID-19. With the exception of a few hotspots, hotel prices are also expected to fall and recover in 2022. The crisis has hit some businesses (for instance those with a highly seasonal product, such as wildlife watching) much harder than others and it is important to establish the range of needs. Tourism generates foreign exchange, supports jobs and businesses, drives regional development and underpins local communities. These include the evolution of the pandemic, availability of a vaccine (or alternative control measures), and the lifting of travel restrictions, as well as the survival and readiness of businesses throughout the tourism ecosystem to meeting demand, impacts on consumer confidence and travel behaviour, and developments in the wider economy. The crisis is a call for governments at all levels to take strong and co-ordinated policy action to mitigate the impacts and support the recovery. Available evidence highlights the precipitous drop in international travel flows and tourism spending, as well as the contraction of domestic tourism activities. Residents in some places may feel that they reclaimed their village, town or city and there are public health fears about visitors returning. Under the central scenario, domestic tourism is expected to recover to 2019 levels in summer 2021, with international tourism recovery forecast for April 2023 (i.e. An error occurred trying to play the stream. Countries need to work together, as the actions taken by one government have implications for travellers and businesses in other countries, and for the global tourism system. Whether this new visitor economy will be better more resilient, more equitable and creating more value for communities - will depend on how we recover. The longer the crisis continues, the more businesses and jobs will be lost, the greater the implications for traveller behaviour, and the tougher it will be to rebuild the tourism economy. Indigenous Tourism Ontario kept in close communications with its operators to understand their situations and challenges. Box1 presents forecasts for domestic and international tourism performance in 2020 from selected countries. Annual booked turnover compared to 2019 is expected to decline by: 42% in domestic and 57% in international tourism in 2020, 14% in domestic and 52% in international tourism in 2021, and 30% in international tourism in 2022. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34348, G20 Diriyah Communiqu, Tourism Ministers Meeting, 7 October 2020, G20 Tourism Ministers Statement, 24 April 2020. The COVID-19 crisis has hit the tourism economy hard, with unprecedented effects on jobs and businesses. What began as an educational project for schools was extended to the tourism sector, and although this has been developed initially as a domestic campaign, it has great potential for international appeal when markets return. Traveller behaviour will be influenced by the evolution of the crisis, as well as longer term consumer trends that are reshaping in the way people travel. However, real recovery will only be possible when international tourism returns. waiters, air stewards, hotel receptionists). Key policy priorities include: Supporting tourism businesses to adapt and survive, Promoting domestic tourism and supporting safe return of international tourism, Providing clear information to travellers and businesses, and limiting uncertainty (to the extent possible), Evolving response measures to maintain capacity in the sector and address gaps in supports, Strengthening co-operation within and between countries, Building more resilient, sustainable tourism. The outlook for the tourism sector remains highly uncertain. This brings challenges for the sector, but also opportunities to encourage innovation, drive new business models, explore new niches/markets, open up new destinations, and move to more sustainable and resilient tourism development models. Those parts of the tourism ecosystem that are not yet open for business and where demand is likely to be depressed or constrained for some time will require particular attention, as will destinations and small businesses that have been most severely hit and are most vulnerable. It will, most likely, be a slow and bumpy ride. The pause in visitors has also opened up opportunities to manage tourism impacts which may have had negative impacts for instance many landlords have switched back from short-term (visitor) to long-term (residential) letting and in some places this may be a welcome trend that could now be reinforced the Mayor of Lisbon proposed to incentivise the conversion of short-term rental apartments to become affordable housing for key workers. Since then, businesses have collapsed, attitudes have shifted, and politics and technology have moved on, opening up new possibilities. The increased demand for outdoor space, self-drive and outdoor activities is a trend that is set to continue, and investment to protect natural and cultural assets and improve user experiences will have benefits for both residents and visitors alike. Visitors will be looking to plan their trips in greater detail, and DMOs can help to coordinate this with an integrated digital platform. Clear communication, well-designed information policy and clarity on the epidemiological criteria will be particularly important where there is a need to change travel restrictions and containment measures in response to virus outbreaks and the shifting sanitary situation. Policy makers should leverage the opportunity to reboot the tourism economy on a stronger, fairer and more sustainable footing. Latest UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) estimates point to a 70% decline year-on-year in international tourist arrivals in the first eight months of the year, with the loss in export revenues from international tourism eight times that recorded in 2009 amid the global financial crisis.2 UNWTO now foresees a decline in international arrivals close to 70%, with recovery to pre-crisis levels not expected before 2023. If that restaurant is fully booked, you might like to know this one has spaces and on your way, why not stop off at this tavern for an aperitif? While there has been some resumption of international tourism activity, this remains very limited. October 2020. Domestic tourism is providing a much needed boost to help sustain many tourism destinations and businesses, and will continue to be a key driver of recovery in the short to medium term. Click to create account. However, it is one of the most heavily impacted sectors, and will have an impact on wider macroeconomic recovery in many countries. It is also an opportunity to take advantage of new technologies, implement green recovery strategies, and shift to policy and business practices that better balance the environmental, social and economic impacts of tourism. The crisis has highlighted shortcomings in the availability of timely, comparable, granular data in quickly evolving situations. Quantifying the current and future impacts of the crisis on the tourism sector is challenging, with the crisis exposing shortcomings in tourism statistical information systems, including a lack of robust, comparable and timely data to inform policy and business decisions. The scale of job losses is not yet apparent, as government supports have protected workers from the full impact of the pandemic. The tourism sector will be a very different in 2021 to what it was in 2019. Providing policy clarity and taking steps to limit uncertainty (to the extent possible) will be crucial to, Improving the evidence base to inform policy and business decisions will be key, through information gathering, research and data analysis, Crisis is a once in a lifetime opportunity to move toward fairer, more sustainable and resilient models of tourism development, OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 2:Preliminary version. Destinationshave experienced extra pressure from residents and domestic visitors on public spaces such as beaches and national parks and on outdoor infrastructure such as public toilets, waste management, car parks and hiking trails. United Kingdom: VisitBritain have modelled a range of scenarios of the short-term impact on inbound and domestic tourism. The outlook for tourism is extraordinarily uncertain, and recovery will depend on the interlinked consequences of the economic and health crisis on demand and supply side factors. This will further damage business and traveller confidence, and business survival prospects. This note is an abridged version of the OECD Tourism Paper: Mitigating the impact of COVID-19 and preparing for recovery: https://doi.org/10.1787/47045bae-en . The core of this framework, and key findings from all the Travel Foundations recovery planning work, are reproduced here. Supply chains also need to be well understood so that opportunities can be identified for localising these and creating linkages with SMEs. Need an Account? OECD expects international tourism to fall by around 80% in 2020. DMOs have had to adapt quickly to new roles and responsibilities. The Roots to Recovery initiative brought together four very different DMOs: Edinburgh Tourism Action Group, Indigenous Tourism Ontario, Grenada Tourism Authority and Colorado Tourism Office. In this environment, tourism is high on the global policy agenda, and similar calls have been made by other international institutions, including the United Nations10, World Bank11 and World Trade Organisation12. Here, the Travel Foundation shares some of the key lessons, in advance of aConnections Sustainability Working Groupdiscussion on 31 March. The OECD estimates that more than a third of the tourism value added generated in the domestic economy comes from indirect impacts, reflecting the breadth and depth to linkages between tourism and other sectors (e.g. Many micro-businesses died on impact and many others downsized, or mothballed, their operations for at least a season and entire communities were closed to visitors. However, a return to business as usual is unlikely. Domestic tourism is expected to benefit, as people prefer to stay local and visit destinations within their own country. Not all businesses will survive the crisis and capacity in the sector is likely to be reduced for a period, limiting the recovery. National level estimates similarly reflect the scale of the impact on tourism, together with the challenges in making predictions in a fast moving and uncertain situation. The crisis is a call for governments at all levels to take strong and co-ordinated policy action to mitigate the impacts and support the recovery. Please reload the page and try again. There is also a need to ensure visitors are equipped with the right information on how to be safe and responsible in the great outdoors, and an opportunity to engage with residents, and reassure them that the necessary measures are in place. This is having very tangible economic and social consequences for many people, places and businesses, and the wider economy. During a phased reopening, Grenada Tourism Authority launched the Pure Grenada, Just for you campaign focused on niche offerings and encouraging connections to other sectors such as agriculture, gastronomy and nature. Attempts to forecast the impact of the pandemic on the tourism economy have repeatedly been overtaken by the rapidly evolving sanitary situation, and changes to containment measures. Colorado has been focusing on identifying their high value visitors, but they are interpreting this not just in terms of higher spend. Vaccine roll out will take some time, and the sector is potentially facing stop/start cycles for some time. Rebuilding Tourism Competitiveness : Tourism Response, Recovery and Resilience to the COVID-19 Crisis. The crisis is putting millions of jobs in the tourism sector at risk. Changes in visitor flows, for instance, to enable social distancing in town centres, mean that normal transport and mobility has been disrupted, and temporary measures (such as barriers and signs) may impact on aesthetics and experiences. Improving the evidence base to inform policy and business decisions will be key, through information gathering, research and data analysis. Destinations that rely heavily on international, business and events tourism are particularly struggling, with many coastal, regional and rural areas faring better than cities. There is an urgent need to diversify and strengthen the resilience of the tourism economy, to better prepare for future shocks, to address long standing structural weaknesses, and encourage the digital, low carbon transformations that will be essential to shift to stronger, fairer and more sustainable models of tourism development. Continued government support should already start to build toward more sustainable and resilient tourism economy. OECD Policy Responses to Coronavirus (COVID-19), International trade in travel and tourism services: economic impact and policy responses during the COVID-19 crisis, Covid-19 and Tourism: Assessing the Economic Consequences, The impact of COVID-19 on the tourism sector, 174 million Travel and Tourism jobs could be lost due to COVID-19 and travel restrictions, Behavioural changes in tourism in times of Covid-19: Employment scenarios and policy options, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34348, Tackling coronavirus (COVID-19) - Browse OECD contributions.